Calculation probability of foreign wind power generation

What are probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation?

Probabilistic forecasts are the most used representation of the uncertainty in WPF, which is introduced in this section. The two other forms, i.e. risk index and spatial–temporal scenario, would be reviewed in 6 Risk index forecasting of wind power generation, 7 Wind power space-time scenario forecasting.

Can a probabilistic wind power output be characterized by probability distribution?

Abstract—Wind power output is always uncertain but, in a sufficiently long time interval, the output exhibits statistical behavior that is meaningful enough to be characterized by probability distribution. The aim of this paper is to develop a model for probabilistic wind power generation.

How can wind power statistics be used to model regional wind power?

The wind power statistics make the modeling of regional wind power possible by furnishing analytical approximation of the total wind power PDF using Gram-Charlier series. If wind power output is treated as a a random stochastic process for the wind speed. From a different

What is the probabilistic framework for wind power uncertainty forecasting?

Therefore, energy-related forecasts method should be developed in the probabilistic framework. Based on uncertainty representations employed, various techniques of wind power uncertainty forecasting are classified into three categories, i.e. probabilistic forecasting, risk index forecasting, and scenario forecasting.

What is the capacity factor of a wind turbine?

where f (v) is the density function of the wind speed distribution, i.e. the probability of wind speed distribution between vi and vo. Therefore, the smaller vi or the bigger vo is, the larger this factor is. The capacity factor of a wind turbine is a very significant index in selecting a wind turbine.

Does wind speed correlate with annual wind power distribution?

Each profile of hourly wind speed is tagged with a wind turbine of randomised rating to enumerate the respective annual wind power distribution. All these power distributions exhibit randomness to various degrees, and are mildly correlated due to wind speed correlation.